Uber: The Company Every Robotaxi Still Needs

Everyone knows robotaxis are coming.

A disruptive technology that’s got most Uber investors running for the door as a pervasive narrative is being drilled into their heads…

The narrative that Google’s Waymo and Tesla’s robotaxi will make Uber’s business model obsolete.

I think that call is far from being probable, and so far it has failed to show up in the numbers.

If anything, the numbers show autonomous driving and robotaxis are helping Uber gain market share and become vital to the rollout of this new technology:

Waymo now reports more than 500,000 paid rides every week in the United States.

And though they do not disclose how many of these were booked through Uber, scale alone should force investors to rethink who will own the logistics behind all this.

But,

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows…

Uber’s management highlighted what could become the single biggest threat to Uber’s future margins, rooted in new international laws demanding that they treat drivers as full-time employees.

This means:

Ironically, the biggest threat to Uber today may also become its biggest catalyst.

Every regulation that makes human drivers more expensive…

Makes autonomous driving more valuable.

Now here’s what I have to say about that issue:

At 70% of its 52-week high, and a record-low EV/EBITDA multiple, Uber stock has priced in most of these risks in my opinion.

Nancy Pelosi just loaded up on a ton of call options, and given this is more of a regulatory issue, I would think she’s got the better insight into the outcomes for this new integration.

Which leaves us with a question that matters more than anything in this report:

Will Uber become the biggest loser in autonomous driving…

Or its biggest winner?