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"Become Your Own Bank" Using Your Own Digital Assets
HODLing Bitcoin is what most people do. Rich people do this instead.
You deposit $10,000 in a bank and get paid 0.5% interest. They lend YOUR money at 7%, 10%, even 20% on credit cards. The bank always wins.
Coinbase runs the same playbook. They earn billions on customer deposits while you earn nothing. Tan Gera, CFA, shows how to flip that equation and become the bank yourself – collecting the spread on the digital assets you're already holding, even in this market.
Performance varies. Yields not guaranteed. Not investment advice. Past results don't predict future returns.
GOLDMAN’S LATEST
You may have heard of the HALO trade.
High Assets, Low Obsolescence.
Since the fourth quarter of 2025, this trade has massively outperformed most businesses in the stock market, and it can all be credited to one theme.
Sadly, this is a theme you will never hear about, because it directly contradicts everything that’s being talked about today.
Naturally, HALO businesses are the ones that benefit from market factors like:
Value
Quality
Breadth
Which means, they are also part of the real economy rather than the AI economy.
If you’ve been reading my morning digests and updates on these factor performances, then you know I am also researching businesses with this HALO aspect to them.
But that doesn’t matter.
What matters is that the other side of this setup, the asset-light names in AI, are lagging and beginning to fall behind.
In fact,
62% of technology stocks are in a bear market (20% off the highs), while 80% of technology stocks are in correction (10% off the highs.)
However, not all technology stocks are made equal, there are some who can still win even amid this disaster.
Specifically:
For every $1 that goes long any AI-related name
Probably $0.30 goes short software to hedge these bets
Which is exactly why I began my search in software companies that don’t show any AI replacement symptoms.
It’s done you and me pretty well, we’ve beat the S&P by 5% this month alone.
Today, we’ll break down a trade idea found in last week’s PMI figures.
It is also attached to the HALO and real economy momentum, while offering a “call option” for further AI capex indirectly.
More importantly,
I will structure this idea in a way that pays no matter what happens to the capex guidance and infrastructure spending.
So…
How do hedge funds make money even when they’re wrong?
CHART OF THE DAY
The KOSPI is officially in a bear market as of today.
Even worse,
It has dragged all of the DRAM constituents (like Micron and SanDisk) down with it.
You may be wondering what a South Korean margin has to do with US equities…
That’s what I asked as well, and found a $1.5 trillion gambling debt hanging off a thread across the pond.
ARE YOU COVERED? —>
These gamblers have used $600 billion worth of US equity collateral to keep their bets running.
As these drawdowns worsen, even more memory and semiconductor stocks may fall.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
It all begins with Liberation Day.
Section 232 tariffs on steel essentially created a power vacuum to be filled by the largest American steel producers.
If that wasn’t enough…
Hyperscalers along with NVIDIA created a trillion-dollar cascade of infrastructure spending and building, all centered into one property asset class:
Data centers & Fabs
Roughly 90% of materials used in data center construction come from hot roiled coil steel (HRC.)
Which explains the continued uptrend in HRC prices, as demand doesn’t allow enough time for supply to catch up.
More importantly,
American data centers are expensive, and AI revenues have yet to clarify when that investment will pay off.
That said, chances are these builders will look to reduce their costs by working around the Section 232 tariffs, directly benefiting American steel makers.
Manufacturing PMI Industry New Orders, Offside Capital
Now you understand why there’s a breakout in Primary Metals new orders.
This is exactly why I decided to focus on it as well, considering that an entire quarter of expansion increases the odds of an EPS beat this earnings season.
However, I don’t think all steel players will be treated equally.
Because with the latest PMI data came the Fed’s capacity utilization table, which revealed a far more important dynamic in the metals industry:
Capacity Utilization Trends, Offside Capital
It’s not really primary metals that are in bottleneck territory, but rather the fabricated metal products that come from them…
In other words:
Steel and other metals are in healthy supply
Finished products are not
Keep in mind as we spot the best idea possible here, those who deliver steel for data center builders are not going to keep winning.
Those that use their own steel to deliver specialized fabricated uses will keep winning.
Now here’s the tie-breaker:
Computer products (like memory) continue to operate at tight demand
Motor vehicles and parts are quickly rising to the 72% cutoff point
Crossing 72% is important because it means supply is tight while demand is hot, benefitting price and margin dynamics for businesses.
Anyway,
Computer parts have been tight for a while, so this has probably been priced in at this point.
Motor vehicles and parts are heating up, and if they continue to do so, Section 232 tariffs and “Made in America” vehicle production will kick in.
Now THAT has not been priced in yet.
At least by the public…
Forward P/E Spreads in Steel, Offside Capital
One steel maker is trading at a significant premium to its main competitor, all while expecting to deliver over 100% in EPS growth.
Premium justified.
Its competitor is expecting 9% EPS growth coming off an insane 80% growth ramp.
The reason is very simple:
The premium name is a fabricated metal provider for data centers and car makers
The discounted name bet it all on data centers, and growth has come off
Because the hyperscalers are beginning to cut capex financing, I suspect the discounted candidate will miss their quarter and decline.
That makes up for a perfect short.
Because the premium stock is still delivering on the last round of fabricated steel products for ongoing data center (not new) projects, and also exposed to the ramp up of automotive assembly, I believe it has a very good chance of beating expectations this quarter.
That makes up for a perfect long.
I’ve spotted the alpha for you, now it’s on you to take it home.
Click here to join Offside Premium and receive this trade structure.
THAT’S how hedge funds win, even when they’re wrong.
WHAT’S THE TRADE?
Some traders are now preparing for the exact trade proposal I just laid out:
Strong open interest suggests traders are now betting on my long candidate to rally by over 100% by the end of July.
I am going to send my deep dive on this candidate, its entry prices and targets, as well as the hedge in the short candidate.
All this week inside Offside Premium.
Now for the short candidate’s evidence:
This one is a bit nuanced, but it actually validates my thinking above…
Major call spreads are going for the $150 and $240 strike.
Probably meaning a lot of longs are exposed to the stock, but are beginning to doubt how much longer it can run based on these capex and data center slowdowns…
So, they can short the $240 strike and short the $150 strike.
Stock pops? They financed their $240 calls with the $150 shorts and make money when the stock goes past $240 along with the long shares.
Stock collapses? They make significantly more from the $150 calls declining, close their smaller premium for the $240 calls, and ride their long stock risk free lower.
That’s a bearish call spread.
It 100% validates this trade, so by the time you read this I will probably be already working on that write up.
Don’t miss out.
A Final Note
COMING UP NEXT
Goldman’s Jim Covello just said the unthinkable. We are in an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble.
This is rare for Goldman to say, and actually back with hard evidence and figures, so I will relay my findings back to you.
It all hones in on the HALO trade as well, so expect some good guidance in my next post.
Here’s the Covello video for you to watch in the meantime, where you can familiarize yourself with some of the ideas I’ll cover and break down next:
Until next time,
OFFSIDE RESEARCH
Against the Tape, Ahead of the Curve.